Political Science

Prediction

Prediction

Author: Daniel Sarewitz

Publisher: Island Press

ISBN: 1559637765

Category: Political Science

Page: 426

View: 334

Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.
Science

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Author: Thomas Tomkins Warner

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781139494311

Category: Science

Page:

View: 194

This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.
Business & Economics

Prediction

Prediction

Author: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 9781446444368

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 918

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita can predict the future. From international terrorism to corporate fraud, from climate change to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been predicting the future for decades. Using Game Theory (a theory based on the rationale that everyone acts in their own self-interest) he can foretell and even engineer events. His forecasts, for everyone from the CIA to major international companies, have an extraordinary 90% success rate. In this fascinating and immensely readable book he explains how you can use Game Theory to your own advantage - to win a legal dispute, advance your career and even get the best possible price for your car. Prediction will change your understanding of the world - both now and in the future.
Computers

Data-Driven Prediction for Industrial Processes and Their Applications

Data-Driven Prediction for Industrial Processes and Their Applications

Author: Jun Zhao

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783319940519

Category: Computers

Page: 443

View: 187

This book presents modeling methods and algorithms for data-driven prediction and forecasting of practical industrial process by employing machine learning and statistics methodologies. Related case studies, especially on energy systems in the steel industry are also addressed and analyzed. The case studies in this volume are entirely rooted in both classical data-driven prediction problems and industrial practice requirements. Detailed figures and tables demonstrate the effectiveness and generalization of the methods addressed, and the classifications of the addressed prediction problems come from practical industrial demands, rather than from academic categories. As such, readers will learn the corresponding approaches for resolving their industrial technical problems. Although the contents of this book and its case studies come from the steel industry, these techniques can be also used for other process industries. This book appeals to students, researchers, and professionals within the machine learning and data analysis and mining communities.
Technology & Engineering

Reliability Prediction and Testing Textbook

Reliability Prediction and Testing Textbook

Author: Lev M. Klyatis

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781119411932

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 272

View: 920

This textbook reviews the methodologies of reliability prediction as currently used in industries such as electronics, automotive, aircraft, aerospace, off-highway, farm machinery, and others. It then discusses why these are not successful; and, presents methods developed by the authors for obtaining accurate information for successful prediction. The approach is founded on approaches that accurately duplicate the real world use of the product. Their approach is based on two fundamental components needed for successful reliability prediction; first, the methodology necessary; and, second, use of accelerated reliability and durability testing as a source of the necessary data. Applicable to all areas of engineering, this textbook details the newest techniques and tools to achieve successful reliabilityprediction and testing. It demonstrates practical examples of the implementation of the approaches described. This book is a tool for engineers, managers, researchers, in industry, teachers, and students. The reader will learn the importance of the interactions of the influencing factors and the interconnections of safety and human factors in product prediction and testing.
Science

Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

Author: Vladimir Keilis-Borok

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 354043528X

Category: Science

Page: 358

View: 981

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.
Mathematics

Model-Free Prediction and Regression

Model-Free Prediction and Regression

Author: Dimitris N. Politis

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783319213477

Category: Mathematics

Page: 246

View: 353

The Model-Free Prediction Principle expounded upon in this monograph is based on the simple notion of transforming a complex dataset to one that is easier to work with, e.g., i.i.d. or Gaussian. As such, it restores the emphasis on observable quantities, i.e., current and future data, as opposed to unobservable model parameters and estimates thereof, and yields optimal predictors in diverse settings such as regression and time series. Furthermore, the Model-Free Bootstrap takes us beyond point prediction in order to construct frequentist prediction intervals without resort to unrealistic assumptions such as normality. Prediction has been traditionally approached via a model-based paradigm, i.e., (a) fit a model to the data at hand, and (b) use the fitted model to extrapolate/predict future data. Due to both mathematical and computational constraints, 20th century statistical practice focused mostly on parametric models. Fortunately, with the advent of widely accessible powerful computing in the late 1970s, computer-intensive methods such as the bootstrap and cross-validation freed practitioners from the limitations of parametric models, and paved the way towards the `big data' era of the 21st century. Nonetheless, there is a further step one may take, i.e., going beyond even nonparametric models; this is where the Model-Free Prediction Principle is useful. Interestingly, being able to predict a response variable Y associated with a regressor variable X taking on any possible value seems to inadvertently also achieve the main goal of modeling, i.e., trying to describe how Y depends on X. Hence, as prediction can be treated as a by-product of model-fitting, key estimation problems can be addressed as a by-product of being able to perform prediction. In other words, a practitioner can use Model-Free Prediction ideas in order to additionally obtain point estimates and confidence intervals for relevant parameters leading to an alternative, transformation-based approach to statistical inference.
Science

Seizure Prediction in Epilepsy

Seizure Prediction in Epilepsy

Author: Björn Schelter

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9783527625208

Category: Science

Page: 369

View: 561

Comprising some 30 contributions, experts from around the world present and discuss recent advances related to seizure prediction in epilepsy. The book covers an extraordinarily broad spectrum, starting from modeling epilepsy in single cells or networks of a few cells to precisely-tailored seizure prediction techniques as applied to human data. This unique overview of our current level of knowledge and future perspectives provides theoreticians as well as practitioners, newcomers and experts with an up-to-date survey of developments in this important field of research.
Computers

Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science

Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science

Author: Matthias Heymann

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISBN: 9781315406299

Category: Computers

Page: 256

View: 936

In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.
Abandoned mined lands reclamation

Earthquake Prediction, Opportunity to Avert Disaster

Earthquake Prediction, Opportunity to Avert Disaster

Author: Edgar A. Imhoff

Publisher:

ISBN: OSU:32435030455802

Category: Abandoned mined lands reclamation

Page: 35

View: 634

Contributions from city of San Francisco, Director of Emergency Services; National Science Foundation, Research Applications, Directorate; State of California, Office of Emergency Services, Seismic Safety Commission; U.S. Department of the Interior, Assistant Secretary for Energy and Minerals, Geological Survey; University of California at Los Angeles, Department of Sociology.
Science

Biodegradability Prediction

Biodegradability Prediction

Author: W.J. Peijnenburg

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789401156868

Category: Science

Page: 143

View: 688

Biodegradation is the dominant pathway for the environmental transformation of most chemicals and information on a chemical's biodegradability is essential for proper risk assessment. But there are few methods for predicting whether or not a chemical is biodegradable, since this depends on the chemical's structure as well as on the environmental conditions that it encounters. The present book deals with quantitative structure-biodegradability relationship models (QSBRs), emphasizing the biological and ecological part of the biodegradation process. Surveys are given of the microbial aspects of biodegradation and the methods available for testing biodegradability. New trends and methods in biodegradation modelling are reviewed, including contributions on computerized biodegradability prediction systems. Some of the newly developed models for assessing risk and ecological impact in aquatic and terrestrial environments have been validated, and this process is discussed. Audience: Scientists active in microbiology, the environmental sciences, biotechnology and bioremediation. Policy makers will find the book indispensable in assessing the present state of the art on the biodegradability of substances.
Computers

Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction

Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction

Author: Ariel M. Greenberg

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783642372100

Category: Computers

Page: 535

View: 726

This book constitutes the proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, SBP 2013, held in Washington, DC, USA in April 2013. The total of 57 contributions, which consists of papers and posters, included in this volume was carefully reviewed and selected from 137 submissions. This conference is strongly committed to multidisciplinarity, consistent with recent trends in computational social science and related fields. The topics covered are: behavioral science, health sciences, military science and information science. There are also many papers that provide methodological innovation as well as new domain-specific findings.